When Forecasting Becomes Fiction
Sales forecasts often become unreliable when opinion replaces evidence and activity is mistaken for progress. Inflated pipelines, performative forecast reviews, and a lack of accountability can turn forecasting into a narrative exercise rather than a decision-making tool. Strong forecasting systems are grounded in deal velocity, qualification, and objective criteria—not gut feel.
Carter Cathey
5/6/20262 min read
There is a point where forecasting stops being a management tool and starts becoming a story.
Most sales leaders have seen it happen. The pipeline looks strong at the beginning of the month, but as the weeks pass, deals begin to slip. What was expected to close quietly moves into the next month. Then the next. Over time, you realize the forecast isn’t reflecting reality. It’s reflecting optimism.
I think about this in a few different patterns.
The first is what I would call the elephant graveyard pipeline. It’s full of deals that technically still exist, but have no real velocity. They haven’t progressed in weeks or months, but they remain in the pipeline under the assumption that “anything is possible.” These deals inflate the forecast, but they rarely convert.
The second is the performative forecast. These are meetings where the conversation sounds good, but nothing is actually being evaluated. Sellers talk about strong relationships, positive calls, and general momentum, but there is little focus on what has actually changed in the deal or what needs to happen next. The forecast becomes a reflection of confidence rather than evidence.
The third is when leadership begins to participate in the fiction. It is often easier to accept an inflated forecast than it is to deal with the implications of a weak one. Over time, the organization starts to align around numbers that everyone knows are unlikely to materialize.
There are other signals as well. Deals sitting in the same stage without movement. “Commit” forecasts based on gut feel rather than defined criteria. Pipelines that grow in size but not in velocity. Teams that struggle to disqualify opportunities and instead carry everything forward.
At that point, the problem isn’t forecasting. The problem is the system.
A reliable forecast comes from a pipeline that is high volume, well-qualified, and consistently moving. It is built on objective signals: defined next steps, buyer engagement, decision clarity, and real progress.
Forecasting should not be about what you hope will happen. It should be about what is happening.
If your forecast is consistently wrong, it’s not a forecasting problem.
It’s a system problem.
Contact Carter Cathey
info@cartercathey.com
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