Intelligence, Confidence, and the Risk of Seeing Too Much

When we’re young, and maybe when we’re a bit naive, confidence comes easily.
We believe the world is mostly predictable, and that our effort determines the outcome.
That illusion of control is what lets us take bold swings.

But over time, as experience and intelligence deepen, we begin to see more, more complexity, more risk, more dependencies we don’t control.
Ironically, the smarter you are, the harder it can be to act.
You can see every possible failure path before you even start.

I’ve noticed this in my career in other people, and sometimes in myself. Those with less analytical depth often move faster, because they don’t see all the risks.
Those with greater cognitive horsepower can see too much.
They can get caught in endless what-if loops, paralyzed by depth of their own assessment of the risks.

Maybe there is a bell curve of success:
On one end, blind confidence propels people forward; on the other, excessive analysis holds people back.
Somewhere in the middle lives that perfect balance, enough awareness to make smart bets, but enough optimism and belief if the power of sheer will to keep moving.

So perhaps the goal isn’t just wisdom or intelligence, it’s also some degree of selective blindness.
The ability to know the risks but still choose belief over paralysis.
To be smart enough to understand uncertainty, and brave enough to act anyway.

Have you seen this dynamic play out, where too much insight actually slows action? How do you keep wisdom, experience, and keen intelligence from turning into hesitation and inaction?

p.s. I didn't think about Jamie and Roy until after I had written this, but I think there are a perfect illustration of what I was considering. :)